Who cares about Barry Bonds' morally empty pursuit of 755 home runs?
No, the record to follow this year is Seattle Mariner Jose Vidro's promising bid to shatter the mark for double plays hit into in one season, set at 36 by Jim Rice in 1984.
Here's why it's likely to happen:
1. Vidro is a "professional hitter" in the eyes of M's brass, and he's being paid $7.5 million this year to be that. He's going to play every day.
2. Vidro is 33, coming off several leg and knee surgeries, and is overweight. He used to be a good second baseman but is now considered unable to play the field at all and has been installed at DH. I'm not sure he could beat Frank Thomas in a footrace.
3. Vidro has been installed as the No. 3 hitter in the Seattle lineup.
4. Of Vidro's balls in play, 46.4 percent were ground balls last year. His career percentage is 48.4.
5. According to the USS Mariner Web site, among heavy groundball hitters, there are a couple who aren’t particularly fast and hit third or fourth in their respective lineups. Miguel Tejada had a 51 percent ground ball rate last year, continuing his career trend of hitting the ball on the ground or over the wall. Joe Mauer had a 49.4 percent ground ball rate, Lyle Overbay had a 45.8 percent ground ball rate, and Victor Martinez had a 44 percent ground ball rate. These guys are all middle of the order hitters, being counted on to drive in runs and sustain rallies, while also being heavy groundball hitters and not running particularly well.
You know who ranked #1 in the the majors in grounding into double plays last year? Miguel Tejada. #2? Victor Martinez. Joe Mauer tied for the #6 spot, while Overbay checked in all the way down at a tie for 14th place. These guys are all varying degrees of good hitter, but their combination of hitting 3rd, having strong groundball tendencies, and being slow runners lead to a lot of double plays.
If Vidro hits third all season against both RHP and LHP, and stays healthy, he should get approximately 150 opportunities to ground into a double play. Ibanez had 144 such opportunities last year, while guys like Mauer and Tejada were up in the 170 range. Ballparking 150 GIDP opportunities should put us within 10 chances or so.
6. So, let’s see if we can project how many double plays he’ll ground into this year, using his ball in play patterns.
First, remove the plate appearances that have no chance of being a GIDP — walks, strikeouts, and home runs. I’m projecting about a 9 percent walk rate and a 10 percent strikeout rate, based on his career norms and trends, so we can remove 24 plate appearances right off the top. Given his likely power output, I’ll give him four home runs in double play chances, bringing our total chances down to 122.
That’s 122 balls in play with the double play in order for a guy who is going to put the ball on the ground half the time. Using a 47 percent groundball rate, that’s 57 ground balls in double play situations.
Okay, okay, I know a lot of you don't care about this stat-geek stuff. But I think this is fascinating — a perfect storm of front-office ignorance and player ineptitude that will combine to obliterate a 23-year-old baseball record.
Trust me, you'll want to remember where you were and what you were doing when Vidro breaks the Rice record.
By the way, in 12 plate appearances through Wednesday night, Vidro had grounded in two double plays. He's already the leader in Major League Baseball in this category.
Fun stuff, I'm telling you.
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