Hopefully the team you care about most is doing the smart thing and sitting out this year's free agent market. Because too many teams have money burning holes in their pockets and there are too few quality free agents available, the reckless overspending that has already taken place was sadly inevitable.
The worst deals include:
— Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, 8 years, $136 million. Soriano is somewhat akin to Sammy Sosa, in that his assets are all tied up in one thing — his bat speed. Because he has horrible plate discipline, once that goes — as it did for Sosa around age 34 — the batting average and power will go. Soriano will be 31 next season, and my guess is that the last 4-5 years of his contract will be a millstone around the neck of the franchise that will destroy any chance the Cubs have to contend for more than a decade. They'd better win by 2010 if they're going to win at all.
— Gary Matthews Jr., Los Angeles Angels, 5 years, $50 million. So this is an appropriate reward for one good season that wasn't really THAT good? Before 2006, Matthews was a decent part-timer, but wasn't particularly valuable to anyone. Then he had a superficially impressive season in which his career home-run, line-drive and walk rates all saw a decline. He's going to be 32 next season, playing in a pitcher's park, and there's almost no chance he comes anywhere close to repeating his 2006 season. It's likely he'll have to be replaced as a regular within two seasons.
— Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers, 5 years, $44 million. This isn't as bad as the other two deals, as Pierre's a bit younger (he won't be 30 till next August) and he is actually an OK defender in a park that needs one in center field. But he is nothing special on offense, and not really getting better. He's badly miscast as a leadoff hitter, as his .330 on-base percentage in 2006 really doesn't help a team get cranking. He steals bases, but his base-stealing is actually a negative because he gets caught so much (20 times in 78 tries last year). He has no power, and Dodgets Stadium is likely to negate his Wrigley-aided doubles-and-triples stats from last year. His speed-based skills set doesn't typically age well. Another guy who will need to be replaced as a regular in 2-3 years.
And all reliever contracts:
— Danys Baez, Baltimore Orioles, 3 years, $19 million.
— Jamie Walker, Baltimore Orioles, 3 years, $12 million.
— Justin Speier, Los Angeles Angels, 4 years, $18 million.
Those are all absurd because the minor leagues and low-level free agent ranks are flush with pitchers who can do the job these guys can do for major-league minimum salaries. There are at least 50 non-roster spring-training-invite types who could give roughly equal levels of performance to these guys. The only thing they lack is opportunity.
Whenever and wherever Barry Zito signs ... THAT will probably be the worst deal of the offseason, followed closely by Jason Schmidt and Gil Meche.
Zito is largely an illusion of his cavernous Oakland ballpark, where his higher-than-league-average flyballing ways will get him into trouble in most parks around the league. He's steadily given up more home runs each year. And his strikeout rates have steadily trended downward, while his walk rates have drifted in the opposite direction. He's durable and by no means bad, but he's nowhere close to an ace, and he's going to command ace-plus money someplace.
Schmidt won't get quite as much money, but he's five years older, has some scary injury history and his numbers have been following the Zito trend for a while. He's gotten lucky the last few years with runner-strand rates and batting average on balls in play, but history and research has shown these aren't repeatable skills. And with Boras rumored to be seeking a 5-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million, he's a big risk to be a future Carl Pavano or Matt Clement.
Gil Meche is the only player in major league history thus far to re-establish himself from shoulder labrum surgery. But he sucks. He can't sustain any string of good outings, and people have been excusing away his numerous crappy outings for years by raving about his "stuff," which include a 90-plus fastball and decdent curve. But he's never demonstrated any sustained command of them, and as such has driven Mariners fans crazy for years. He's the type of pitcher about whom you say "he just needs the right pitching coach to straighten him out." But the same could be said for hundreds of washed-out talents over the past few decades. It takes more than "stuff" to be a good pitcher. It takes actually knowing how to pitch.
If you love your team, hope like hell it looks to fill its needs via savvy trading. Stay away from this year's whackbag free agent market and the peer and fan pressure to make superfluous "statement signings."
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