Wayne Countryman wrote:
When your best pitch is a fairly straight change and the batter guesses that it's coming, your "effectiveness" is reduced. It's worse if your fastball isn't very fast anymore.
As said in a thread a few days ago, American League hitters are more aggressive and more willing to guess than those in the NL. Deception doesn't deter them as much.
Batters have seen Hoffman for a lot of years and apparently are figuring him out. Even if he stays healthy, he'll probably give up more runs than in the past.
Imagine if Mariano Rivera developed a good change-up. He could pitch until he's 50.
Good points, Wayne. I would love it if Rivera could pitch till he was 50.
Jonathan Papelbon, at his current level of effectiveness? Not so much.