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 Post subject: Houston ... they have a problem
PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2007 1:19 pm 
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Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2005 6:47 pm
Posts: 1734
Location: Washington
I imagine it must be exasperating to be an Astros fan these days. As I write, the team sits at a not-awful record of 12 wins and 14 losses. To me, it's amazing that they're THAT good, considering they have just five legitimate hitters in a nine-man batting lineup.

And they have that because, apparently, the Astros have decided that "loyalty" and "pleasing the fans" are more important than winning ballgames. In fact, the Astros agenda has nothing to do with wins and losses, it would seem.

Exhibit A, of course, is Craig Biggio, who is about 40 hits away from 3,000 for his career. He's a future Hall of Fame player who had many good years. Fans love him, are rooting him on in his quest for 3,000, and the city will probably declare a holiday and have him immediately and forcibly bronzed when it happens in six or seven weeks or so.

The problem is that Biggio, 41 years old, hasn't been a very good player for about five years now. And his pursuit of 3,000 may actually be making him worse — once a patient, disciplined hitter, Biggio has turned into a hack who swings at just about anything (after all, walks don't do him any good any longer). His offensive value lies pretty much in his batting average, and his average is strictly an illusion of Your Frozen Beverage Here Ballpark and its Little-League-length left-field porch. (Over the last three years, he's hit .293 at home, .232 on the road.)

The team compounds this offensive black hole by placing Biggio in the leadoff spot, which can only be interpreted as a stunt to ensure he gets as many at-bats as possible so he achieves his milestone that much sooner. Because he sure ain't got no more speed.

And his defense is a joke. He has no range any longer. He has no business trying to be a major league second baseman. In one game I saw recently on TV, at least ten balls whistled past him on either side — and I think better second baseman would have gotten to at least five of them. He seriously undermines his team's starting pitching, which is its strongest point.

Adding to this insanity is the fact that the Astros have a promising young second baseman named Chris Burke just sitting on the bench, patiently waiting for Biggio to get 3,000 hits in the hopes that the team will pull the plug shortly after and give Burke a chance to play.

Exhibit B is catcher Brad Ausmus, now 38 years old. Ausmus long had a reputation as a good-field, no-hit catcher, but now he doesn't do either, and hasn't for several years. Over the last three years, he's hit .245 without walks or power; and opposing base stealers rob him at a rate of nearly 75 percent. In short, he offers nothing but a supposedly good reputation for handling pitchers, and the Astros keep trotting him out for start after start, oblivious to his damaging weaknesses.

Exhibit C is shortstop Adam Everett. He may be the best defensive shortstop in baseball — he's just amazing with his range, arm and instincts. The problem is that he's a horrible, horrible offensive ballplayer. He doesn't walk, doesn't have any power, and last year, even in as hitter-friendly a park as his home field, he hit .239. As Baseball Prospectus puts it: "There's simply no room in the game for the new Mark Belanger, not at a time when 12 teams are starting shortstops who outperformed the league-average OPS in 2006 ... and certainly not in a lineup in a non-DH league."

And again, there's a perfectly capable replacement in the organization — a decent glove who can hit named Mark Bruntlett.

Baseball Prospectus has a great evaluation tool called VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) that asks and statistically answers the question: How much better or worse is this player in terms of runs produced per season than an average minumum-league-wage type of player that can be had through the minor leagues or free agency?

Biggio ranks just a few runs above replacement level; Ausmus and Everett are WAY below.

But, of course, none of that matters to the Astros. They've got far more important things to do than win ballgames.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2007 10:14 pm 
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:39 pm
Posts: 731
Location: Central Texas
Exasperating? No, it's more like excruciating.

What's especially puzzling to me is that Tal Smith seemed to have mastered just that kind of analysis when he was running the team for the Ford Motor Credit Corporation in the late 70s. With no money to spend on players, he got them to the brink of the playoffs. (They made it only after John McMullen bought the team and made possible the acquisition of Nolan Ryan before the 1980 season---but I think Tal would have gotten them there in another year anyway.) And of course he's used it again and again as a consultant to owners in salary arbitration.

Sometimes all I can do is wait until postseason and see if they're still playing. I've watched about 20 seconds this season---just enough to see them turn a one-run lead into a four-run deficit on maybe five pitches. (Maybe more than five; it hurts to watch too closely.)

With Tal in charge of baseball operations, you would think that they would have someone with similar acumen judging their own staff.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 6:17 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:46 am
Posts: 302
Location: Conn. -- hence the name
Somebody please put Brad Lidge out of his misery -- I couldn't care less about the Astros, but he's on my rotisserie team and he's dragging my team down!!!!!!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 8:35 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2005 4:22 pm
Posts: 232
Location: Houston
In fairness to Biggio, he is gritty.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 12:46 am 
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Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2005 6:47 pm
Posts: 1734
Location: Washington
He's also quite possibly a selfish bastard whose team is held hostage to his personal goals.


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