One of the first tests of sort of market we'll see in the months to come is happening right now in Seattle, where a few days ago,
the Mariners declined to decline closer Eddie Guardado's $6.25 million team option for 2006.
Guardado has a player option for $4.25 million that he must either pick up or decline by Thursday. If he declines, he becomes a free agent. A third option is that the two sides could negotiate before that deadline and work out a deal, presumably for money in between the two quoted figures. Those talks are reportedly under way.
What's in play here:
1. Guardado, coming off an injury-shortened 2004 in which he decided to rest and rehab a torn rotator cuff rather than have surgery, had a much better season than anyone would have expected: 36 saves (5 blown) and a 2.72 ERA over 56.1 innings, over which he walked just 15 batters and struck out 48 (a tad under his career K/IP ratio, but not alarmingly so).
2. Guardado will be 35 years old in the 2006 season, and still has the rotator cuff tear.
3. It's being widely reported that 14 of the 30 teams in baseball will be shopping for closers this offseason.
4. The Mariners have intriguing but unproven options at closer. There's J.J. Putz, who has the stuff but is gopher-ball-prone; Rafael Soriano, a young guy with electric stuff who missed almost all of the past two seasons with arm injuries; and George Sherrill, a 30-year-old lefty with great K/W numbers but little major league experience.
5. It's believed that the kind of free agents Seattle wants this offseason — a left-handed power-hitting outfielder and two starting pitchers — might be put off if the Mariners don't have an "established" closer in place.
So, keeping in mind that's it's too early to tell whether baseball executives are going to be fiscally conservative or Joe-Mays-for-$24 million ridiculous this offseason, you be the GM (or the player). What do you do?
Here in the Seattle area, we can almost hear the "Final Jeopardy" theme in the air ....