Here's a new and accessible way to appreciate pitching performance. Living near Seattle now, I have of course become a big fan of teen phenom Felix Hernandez, and have gotten interested in the much-asked question of how he measures up with the young Dwight Gooden.

The answer, to my surprise, is that he blows Doc off the charts:

Through four starts, King Felix has faced 107 batters and allowed 0 extra base hits. How good is that? He’s tied Mariano Rivera for the fourth longest streak of batters faced without giving up an extra base knock on the season, and if his next start is anything like his first four, he’ll stand alone at the top of the list. Here it is, for those who are curious.

Kyle Farnsworth, 125 batters faced, May 2nd to August 4th
Sergio Mitre, 115 batters faced, May 29th to June 24th
Noah Lowry, 113 batters faced, July 26th to August 17th
Mariano Rivera, 107 batters faced, April 9th to July 2nd
Felix Hernandez, 107 batters faced, August 4th to present

Going back to the past 33 years (all that we have play by play data for), by the way, the record belongs to Bob Welch at 223 batters faced.

Okay, how about something else? The chances of different events occurring in any given at-bat against Felix through his first four starts:

14.95 % chance of a hit
0.00 % chance of an extra base hit
3.74 % chance of a walk
0.93 % chance of being HBP
28.04 % chance of striking out
42.06 % of hitting into a groundout
10.28 % chance of flying out

If you want a comparison, here’s Dwight Gooden’s percentages from his crazy 1985 season, when he won the Cy Young at age 20.

18.59 % chance of a hit
3.66 % chance of an extra base hit
6.48 % chance of a walk
0.19 % chance of being HBP
25.16 % chance of striking out

Opposing batters put up a .201/.253/.270 line against Gooden that season. The average line for the hitters he faced that year was .253/.319/.375. In other words, Gooden knocked 25 percent off a normal hitters line when he faced him. Felix is cutting 53 percent off the average line of the hitters he has faced, turning them into a collection of pitchers. People are hitting .157/.196/.157 against him. That’s… there’s no words for that.



Try doing this, using metrics available at Baseball Prospectus, to measure your own favorite pitchers.

By the way, when I use a stat line like .157/.196/.203, what I'm referring to is batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage.

I appreciate these sabremetric insights, Wabber. Keep them coming.

Ummmm, yes, nice beginning.

May he have a nice September, too.