Time to reinvent the wheel

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:16 am

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean holds a narrow two-point lead over Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt in Iowa barely one week before the state's caucuses, according to a MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby poll released Sunday.***No, he doesn't.***The former Vermont governor led Gephardt 25-23 percent in the three-day tracking poll ....
The poll of 500 likely caucus-goers was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.***No, it doesn't.***

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:20 am

WASHINGTON â€” Howard Dean has established a narrow advantage in the Iowa caucuses by amassing a solid lead among upscale voters while cutting into Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's support among blue-collar and union families, a new Times Poll found.
Barely a week before the Jan. 19 voting, Dean led Gephardt 30% to 23%, a difference just within the poll's margin of error. (Los Angeles Times)***Better, but still not useful to anyone except, maybe, campaign workers.***

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:22 am

And, don't forget:The margin of sampling error for the likely caucus voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points; for some subgroups, the error margin is higher. (Los Angeles Times)

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:27 am

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by blanp:

The margin of sampling error for the likely caucus voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points; [b]for some subgroups, the error margin is higher. (Los Angeles Times)[/b]<hr></blockquote>***Actually, for all "subgroups," the "margin of error" is higher.***

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:32 am

A Gephardt loss could cripple his candidacy, because he won here in 1988. (Washington Post)***Yes, losing in Iowa might "cripple" Gephardt's candidacy, but not because he won the caucus vote in 1988.***

jjmoney62 · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:33 am

I don't have anything to add, blanp. I just didn't want it to look so obvious that you were having an impassioned public conversation with yourself.

jjmoney62 · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:37 am

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by jjmoney62:
I don't have anything to add, blanp. I just didn't want it to look so obvious that you were having an impassioned public conversation with yourself.<hr></blockquote>You know, I really shouldn't be so sarcastic ....

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:44 am

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by jjmoney62:
I don't have anything to add, blanp. I just didn't want it to look so obvious that you were having an impassioned public conversation with yourself.<hr></blockquote>Call it "the voice in the wilderness."

Jackie · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:26 pm

When I've come to work each day in the last couple of weeks, I think one of the first things I say is, "Aw, shit, the first caucus is in {insert number} days." Very much the downside of being the wire princess.

wordygurdy · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 7:58 pm

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by blanp:
DES MOINES, Iowa - Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean holds a narrow two-point lead over Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt in Iowa barely one week before the state's caucuses, according to a MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby poll released Sunday.***No, he doesn't.***
<hr></blockquote>At the risk of appearing ignorant, I will bite: Why is the snippet you quoted problematic? If the poll shows Dean has a two-point lead, why can't it be reported?

DominEditrix · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 9:07 pm

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by wordygurdy:
If the poll shows Dean has a two-point lead, why can't it be reported?<hr></blockquote>If the poll has a 4.5% margin of error, a two-point "lead" is statistically non-existent. D.

wordygurdy · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 9:15 pm

But the information about the margin of error wasn't included in the snippet Blanp posted to which I responded, Dom. He seemed to have a problem with the information in the first paragraph--otherwise, he wouldn't have said, "No, he doesn't."

Phillip Blanchard · **Posted:** Sun Jan 11, 2004 11:20 pm

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by wordygurdy:
At the risk of appearing ignorant, I will bite: Why is the snippet you quoted problematic? If the poll shows Dean has a two-point lead, why can't it be reported?<hr></blockquote>He doesn't have a lead at all. The "margin of error" in that poll was 4.5 percentage points (not "4.5 percent.") It's dead even.

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